Coveragen=4 · Jul 2026
Fair value and price are each as at the memo's date.
The entire disagreement with the market is one year of asset life.
The bull case is coherent. It is also fully priced.
The whole thesis rests on one number: the steady-state margin.
The disagreement is eighty million dollars of stock compensation.
Method
Price the load-bearing assumption
Each memo isolates the one or two assumptions that set the value, then solves for what today's price implies about them. The whole case rests on those figures, and the working is shown.
Value as a distribution
Every name carries a correlated Monte Carlo of 10,000 to 20,000 draws. The rating reads off where the price sits in that distribution, and the conviction is stated alongside it.
Built to be challenged
Every figure traces to a live spreadsheet model. Assumptions are stated explicitly so a reader can replace them, and each memo names what would overturn it.
About
I'm James McDermott, an economics graduate building toward a career in equity research. The memos here are independent, single-name work, with no coverage obligations, no positions, and no reason to carry a view except the model behind it.
Each one is built to be checked rather than taken on trust. The numbers run from a live model, and the single assumption the price depends on is named up front. If you read one and think that assumption is wrong, that is the reaction I most want. I revise against good objections and credit them.